2024 Global Economic Predictions – What The Experts Say

February 21, 2023

business, finance

Making predictions about the economy is notoriously difficult and a challenge that is best met by looking at all the sources – somewhere in the middle the truth might yet be glimpsed.

This post is a curation of what has been said online over the last couple of months with regards to the Economic outlook for 2024. Of all the predictions made this year 3 things stand out:

1. The Eurozone Crisis will not disappear, but it is less of a concern
2. American and China should continue to grow – even if it’s very modest growth
3. Investors should be looking to equities rather than bonds to increase yields

What Pensions Age said:

“The global economic environment will remain challenging and uncertain during 2024, but it will also offer opportunities for pension fund investors.” Pensions Age

Pensions Age where moderately upbeat about 2024, stating that 2016’s big storms of the Eurozone Crisis and the Chinese leadership transition will have died down considerable in 2024. They believe that low interest rates and anaemic growth will continue in 2024. They suggest “a strategy which favours higher quality stocks and is focused on enhancing yield through asset classes like high yield debt”.

What moneyweek.com said:

“‘More of the same’ is my current theme.” Dominic Frisby moneyweek.com

A rather sobering account of 2024 from moneyweek.com suggests nothing much will change. His belief is that we should look at the bigger picture, and for him that’s a ‘zombie’ like western economy with little movement in any direction. His more specific predictions are no country will leave the EU, the UK will lose its AAA rating and the Bank of England will own 40% of UK government debt.

What economicsuk.com said:

“Glimmers amid the gloom as risks start to fade.” David Smith economicsuk.com

Over at economicsuk.com David Smith gives his mixed opinion of the global economic outlook. Much like Pensions Age David thinks that the woes of the Eurozone crisis and US Fiscal Cliff are for the most part behind us, yet he says we may not be out of the woods yet and both these spectres may come back to haunt us.

What Russell Investments UK said:

“Ongoing volatility, possible recession in Europe likely will be countered by continuation of growth, albeit slow, in U.S. and Chinese markets” 2024 Annual Global Outlook

Russell Investments give a reasonably positive outlook for the year ahead. They think we have a reasonably volatile year ahead mainly due to the tug-of-war between austerity and reflationary monetary policy in the Eurozone, yet despite this investors should see signs of a global recovery, mainly due to a continuation of US and Chinese growth. Much like many other commentaries Russell see that the low yield on bonds will force investors a little up the risk curve towards equities.

What Money Observer said:

“Investors worried about the levels of debt in global economies, the lack of economic growth and the long-term costs of governments’ attempts to refloat their economies.” Heather Connon moneyobserver.com

Money Observer isn’t so sure that the Eurozone crisis is over citing that the southern countries are still on uncertain ground while the entire region is suffering lowered consumer demand due to austerity policies. The positives come in the form of global companies that are doing reasonably well and could benefit from a recovery in the US and a soft landing in China.

What the Telegraph said:

“Small but more sustained economic recovery in the latter part of 2024, which could mean another good year for equities. And investors already appear more confident, with more putting money in shares rather than bonds or cash.”

The Telegraph asked a lot of experts to make predictions about key aspects of the economy. On equities vs. bonds HSBC and others agreed that there would be a gradual slow recovery in 2024 and with such a low yield on government bonds the case for equities is strong. Again chat of the Eurozone brings in mixed opinions the worst may be over – maybe. Tech companies particularly those in the cloud and mobile computing arenas may be worth a punt in 2024 according to HSBC strategists. The outlook for housing and saving is still grim with the consensus being there isn’t much to be gained in either investment options.

This blog has been written on behalf of Russell Investments . The opinions expressed herein are not a statement of fact, are subject to change and, unless they relates to a specified investment, do not constitute the regulated activity of “advising on investments” for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. This material does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone in any jurisdiction to invest in any Russell product or use any Russell services where such offer or invitation is not lawful, or in which the person making such offer or invitation is not qualified to do so, nor has it been prepared in connection with any such offer or invitation.


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